What needed to be solved
A single forecast number hides the range of possible outcomes and gives decision makers little visibility into downside risk.
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03 / PORTFOLIO / PROJECT_02
Stock Monte Carlo Forecaster
A scenario tool that makes uncertainty visible through simulated paths, percentiles, VaR, CVaR, and loss probability.
STATUSDEPLOYED / VERIFIEDEVIDENCE10,000+ paths · Tests · Live app
How I approached it
The app estimates historical inputs, runs reproducible GBM simulations, and translates the distribution into clear risk metrics and interactive charts.
What exists now
Thousands of scenario paths, tail-risk measures, a tested Python package, command-line workflow, documentation, and a live Streamlit app.
TECHNICAL SYSTEM